Thanks to a strengthening El Nino, the rest of the Atlantic hurricane season will be well below normal, said researchers at Colorado State University.
In a July 8 update to its forecast, CSU said the 2026 hurricane season will have nine named storms, four hurricanes, and one major hurricane. The first system, Tropical Storm Arthur, formed in June.
An average hurricane season, which runs June 1 to Nov. 30, has about 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.
CSU explained there is a “high potential” for a strong El Nino. The difficult-to-predict climate phenomenon produces vertical wind shear that typically prevents the formation of hurricanes. The CSU team said it expects El Nino to “dominate the tropical circulation during the peak of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season.”
CSU’s original forecast in April called for a below-average season of 13 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.
Should CSU’s forecast hold up, 2026 would be the quietest season for hurricanes since 2015, when there were four hurricanes and two major hurricanes. The season of 2013 produced no major hurricanes (Category 3 or stronger) and just two hurricanes.
The latest forecast from CSU gives a 17% chance of a major hurricane making landfall along the U.S. coastline (the average from 1880–2020 is 43%).
The announcement comes after a few years of Safety struggling with winter storm claims and just days after AM Best revised the outlooks to negative from stable for the companies of the Safety Group: Safety Indemnity Insurance Co., Safety Property and Casualty Insurance Co. and Safety Northeast Insurance Co.
AM Best affirmed the Financial Strength Rating of A (Excellent) and the Long-Term Issuer Credit Ratings (ICR) of “a” (Excellent).
AM Best said the revision of the outlooks reflected pressure on Safety Group’s operating performance as loss severity trends and weather-related events, and new business, have affected underwriting results over the most recent five-year period and through the first half of 2026.
While the company reported a profitable year in 2025, the early part of this year has been tough. For first quarter, the insurer reported consecutive storms resulted in more than 1,600 property claims, causing damage of $42.7 million, which contributed 14.6 points to its combined ratio of 113.4%.
Management has been under pressure and facing significant insider selling, according to analysts at Kavout.
Safety, which was founded in 1979, writes auto, home and commercial auto in Massachusetts and in Maine and New Hampshire. The insurer is the fourth largest writer of private passenger automobile insurance and the largest writer of commercial automobile insurance in Massachusetts. Mapfre has been a chief competitor.